The invention is not the arrival

A capability can become real long before most people can use it.

AU / The visual argumentSubjective estimates

62 judgments / end 2031

84%average feasibility→45%average majority access

AI personal assistant / admin

Could exist

99%

Majority access

90%

Humanoid that reliably cooks, cleans and maintains a home

Could exist

65%

Majority access

25%

Look closer ↓Readau / AU Review

What the visual says

Across 62 end-2031 claims, the author judged technical and commercial feasibility separately from access for a majority of humanity. The average estimates are 84% and 45%.

Where it stops

These are subjective assessments, not empirical probabilities. The averages summarize unlike technologies and do not predict the number of people who will receive any one product.

Source and status. Author-supplied end-2031 probability assessment; 62 claims transcribed in the AU investigation. Majority access means usable or affordable to more than half of humanity. Visual version 1, 1 October 2026.

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