Scenarios / geopolitics
The winner that still loses
First place in a bad future can still be below zero.
AU / The visual argumentOrdinal judgments
Systemic conflict / South AsiaRelative leader.
Mixed absolute scores.
Mixed absolute scores.
4 ↓1 =3 ↑
Economy-2
Science & technology+1
Education0
Birth rates-1
Housing-1
Infrastructure+1
Construction+2
Finance-1
Author-assigned scores versus a 2025 baseline. Each sector uses an ordinal −5 to +5 scale.
Look closer ↓Readau / AU Review
The author’s systemic-conflict matrix gives South Asia the least negative equal-weight regional mean. Yet four of its eight sector judgments are negative, one neutral and three positive.
The −5 to +5 cells are subjective ordinal judgments, not measured outcomes. South Asia is a region, not India; its mean is only a diagnostic of the supplied matrix.
Source and status. Author-supplied modelski_impact.html, received 1 October 2026; conflict scenario, 2026–2060 versus a 2025 baseline. Visual version 1, 1 October 2026.