By the end of 2031, an AI assistant may be ordinary. A robot that reliably cooks dinner, cleans a home and repairs what breaks may still be unusual. Both technologies can exist. Only one can spread at the speed of software.
That difference is easy to lose in forecasts about abundance. A demonstration, a commercial product and access for a majority of humanity are three separate thresholds. The distance between them is where the social question lives.
The second probability
I assessed 62 claims across AI, robotics, energy, health, industry, food and institutions. Each received two subjective estimates for the end of 2031: the probability that the capability is technically and commercially real, and the probability that it is realistically usable or affordable by more than half of humanity.
The average feasibility judgment is 84%. The average majority-access judgment is 45%. The median difference is about 40 percentage points. These are structured judgments, not measured frequencies or a forecast market size. Their value is in making a hidden assumption visible: who gets the benefit?
An AI personal assistant is assessed at 99% feasibility and 90% majority access. A humanoid that reliably cooks, cleans and maintains a home is assessed at 65% feasibility and 25% majority access. The gap is not a verdict on engineering talent. Physical autonomy must confront hardware costs, maintenance, safety, housing conditions and distribution.
Why access moves more slowly
Digital services can often add one more user at low marginal cost. Scarce physical assets cannot. A capable medical system still needs clinicians, data rights, accountability and affordable delivery. Cheap solar equipment still needs roofs, finance, grids, installers and political permission. A robot at an attractive purchase price still needs reliable autonomy in an unstructured home.
The first beneficiaries may therefore acquire abilities that feel extraordinary while the median household sees only a partial change. That can be true even when the underlying technology succeeds.
The question for 2031
Which capabilities cross both thresholds: existence and broad access? The companion matrix lets you search the 62 claims, compare the two judgments, and inspect the largest gaps. It should be read as an accountable scenario: each number can be challenged, revised and eventually scored against a definition.
Abundance is not a single arrival date. It is a distribution.
Method note. The 62 entries and their probabilities come from the author's supplied “My probability assessment for end-2031.” The estimates are subjective and should not be treated as empirical probabilities. “Majority access” means realistically usable or affordable by more than 50% of humanity. The public explorer preserves the original values and short assessments; future revisions should keep a dated history rather than overwrite them silently.