Forecasts / accountability
Put a date on the prediction
A forecast becomes accountable when the calendar reaches it.
AU / The visual argumentFuture claims unresolved
First test / 2026Missed.
The essay checks its early claims against observed indicators.
Revised ledger / 38 propositions
20293claims to resolve
203218claims to resolve
203617claims to resolve
Look closer ↓Readau / AU Review
The essay reviews failed early 2026 claims and publishes 38 revised propositions with later resolution years. The timeline shows how many revised claims fall due in each year.
The 38 probabilities are subjective revisions, not observed frequencies. This visual does not score future claims as failures or invent original probabilities that are not preserved.
Source and status. AU revised Europe forecast ledger, 30 August 2026. Counts by resolution year are calculated from the 38 published propositions. Visual version 1, 1 October 2026.