The forecast ledger

Thirty-eight dated propositions from a corrected Europe forecast.

The source essay replaces vague predictions with propositions that carry a date and an outcome that can be checked. These probabilities are revised subjective judgments, not observed frequencies.

Search propositions Domain Resolution year

38 propositions

Revised Europe forecast ledger
Proposition	Domain	By	Revised probability
Another member state formally triggers Article 50	Institutions	2032	8%
Treaty change extends qualified-majority voting to foreign policy	Institutions	2036	30%
A formal multi-speed structure is adopted in law	Institutions	2036	45%
At least one new member state accedes	Institutions	2036	55%
Article 7 voting-rights suspension is actually applied	Institutions	2032	12%
A directly elected EU executive is established	Institutions	2036	5%
The EU is dissolved or reduced to a non-functioning shell	Institutions	2036	3%
The euro area enters technical recession	Money	2029	55%
Italy–Germany spread holds above 300 bps for 20 trading days	Money	2032	22%
A euro member restructures debt with private-sector losses	Money	2036	12%
Any state leaves the euro	Money	2036	4%
A permanent common debt instrument beyond NextGenerationEU	Money	2036	50%
Inflation stays above 3% for twelve consecutive months	Money	2029	35%
A universal basic income is adopted at Union level	Money	2036	2%
EU unemployment exceeds 9% in any month	Work	2032	25%
EU unemployment exceeds 15% in any month	Work	2032	3%
EU youth unemployment exceeds 20% in any month	Work	2032	30%
General strikes in three or more states within twelve months	Work	2032	40%
A four-day week becomes the norm in any member state	Work	2036	8%
An EU-level job guarantee programme is adopted	Work	2036	7%
Three or more states legislate a retirement age of 68 or higher	Society	2036	45%
A state defaults on or haircuts contracted pension entitlements	Society	2036	7%
The EU fertility rate falls below 1.30	Society	2032	60%
Schengen controls in five or more states for six months at once	Society	2032	55%
Schengen is formally suspended or dismantled	Society	2036	5%
A common asylum system with functioning mandatory relocation	Society	2036	20%
Renewables exceed 70% of EU electricity across a full year	Energy And Technology	2036	45%
A headline 2030 or 2040 climate target is weakened or delayed	Energy And Technology	2032	55%
Emergency energy rationing in three or more member states	Energy And Technology	2032	18%
A cyber-attack causes 24 hours or more of lost essential service	Energy And Technology	2032	50%
An EU firm ranks among the top five frontier AI developers	Energy And Technology	2032	15%
The Ukraine war ends in armistice, settlement or a frozen line	Security	2029	65%
A direct, acknowledged Russia–NATO armed exchange occurs	Security	2032	22%
Article 5 is formally invoked	Security	2032	10%
The United States formally withdraws from NATO	Security	2032	8%
US forces in Europe fall more than 30% below 2025 levels	Security	2032	45%
EU average defence spending exceeds 3.0% of GDP	Security	2032	55%
A nuclear weapon is detonated in conflict anywhere	Security	2036	4%

How should these numbers be read?

The values were extracted from the published AU forecast graphic. They are the author’s revised estimates. Some outcomes still need a fuller resolution rule; the original essay discusses the weaknesses of undefined forecasts. The dated proposition and probability are preserved here without inventing an earlier estimate.

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Source and status: AU essay and embedded forecast graphic, 30 August 2026. Values are subjective and should be scored at their resolution dates.