Investigations / AU
The access gap
Sixty-two claims about 2031, each judged twice: feasible and broadly accessible.
The 62 estimates ask two questions of every claim: will the capability be real, and will a majority of humanity be able to use it? The difference is the access gap.
62claims assessed
84%average feasibility judgment
45%average majority-access judgment
Select a dot or search the table to inspect a claim.
62 claims
| Claim | Feasibility | Majority access | Gap | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI personal tutor | 98% | 80% | 18 pp | Strong |
| AI tutor achieving genuine “2-sigma” outcomes | 60% | 35% | 25 pp | Plausible, not demonstrated |
| AI personal assistant / admin | 99% | 90% | 9 pp | Essentially inevitable |
| AI financial adviser / CPA equivalent | 95% | 75% | 20 pp | Strong; regulation limits autonomy |
| AI trainer / nutritionist | 98% | 85% | 13 pp | Strong |
| AI diagnostics + wearables ≈ personal physician | 90% | 45% | 45 pp | Overstated as full physician-equivalent service |
| Humanoid robot cheaper than a car | 85% | 30% | 55 pp | Price plausible; autonomy harder |
| Humanoid reliably cooks, cleans, maintains home | 65% | 25% | 40 pp | Biggest robotics uncertainty |
| Robotaxis broadly available | 95% | 40% | 55 pp | Strong technology, slower geography |
| Robotaxi replaces car ownership at $50/month unlimited | 20% | 10% | 10 pp | Economically implausible at that price |
| Solar + battery extremely cheap | 98% | 70% | 28 pp | Strong |
| Electricity “effectively free in most of world” | 10% | 7% | 3 pp | Wrong metric/economics |
| 3D/robotic construction < $80k structure | 80% | 35% | 45 pp | Quite plausible |
| Quality all-in home < $80k incl. utilities/land | 40% | 20% | 20 pp | Land/infrastructure dominate |
| Private-flight/eVTOL access | 85% | 8% | 77 pp | Technology yes; democratization no |
| 5,000 ft² primary + vacation home equivalent | 15% | 4% | 11 pp | Scarce land cannot be demonetized |
| Universal High Income | 30% | 10% | 20 pp | Distribution, not engineering |
| Overall: majority humanity has 2026 $1m-household lifestyle | 35% | 18% | 17 pp | 2031 claim unlikely |
| Near-real-time universal AI translation | 99% | 85% | 14 pp | Very strong |
| AI legal adviser for routine matters | 99% | 75% | 24 pp | Very strong |
| AI software engineer / app builder for non-programmers | 99% | 75% | 24 pp | Very strong |
| Personal AI career coach / recruiter / job agent | 99% | 75% | 24 pp | Very strong |
| Personal AI research analyst | 99% | 80% | 19 pp | Very strong |
| Personal AI creative studio: video, music, design, advertising | 99% | 80% | 19 pp | Very strong |
| Personalized AI entertainment generated on demand | 98% | 75% | 23 pp | Strong |
| AI cybersecurity agent for individuals | 98% | 70% | 28 pp | Strong |
| High-quality AI university / vocational education | 98% | 70% | 28 pp | Strong |
| Global affordable broadband sufficient for AI services | 98% | 85% | 13 pp | Strong |
| Satellite/direct-to-device connectivity almost everywhere | 95% | 60% | 35 pp | Strong technically |
| AI smart glasses as an always-present assistant | 90% | 45% | 45 pp | Likely product; uncertain mass adoption |
| Immersive VR/AR substitutes for portions of tourism/events | 95% | 45% | 50 pp | Technically strong, economically partial |
| Cheap electric cars competitive with ICE without subsidy | 98% | 35% | 63 pp | Strong |
| Low-cost electric two-/three-wheel transport | 99% | 60% | 39 pp | Very strong |
| Autonomous highway trucking | 95% | 75% | 20 pp | Strong indirect majority benefit |
| Autonomous drone parcel delivery | 90% | 25% | 65 pp | Likely but geographically constrained |
| Highly automated warehouses/logistics | 99% | 75% | 24 pp | Very strong indirect benefit |
| Lights-out / near-autonomous factories | 95% | 60% | 35 pp | Strong for standardized manufacturing |
| AI + robotics materially reduce manufactured-goods prices | 90% | 65% | 25 pp | Strong |
| Local robotic microfactories / customized manufacturing | 85% | 25% | 60 pp | Plausible niche-to-mainstream transition |
| 3D-printed customized consumer products on demand | 95% | 35% | 60 pp | Technically easy; economics mixed |
| Battery-backed solar approaching 24/7 supply in favorable regions | 98% | 45% | 53 pp | Very strong technically |
| Household batteries become commonplace | 98% | 35% | 63 pp | Strong in wealthy/sunny markets |
| EVs become distributed grid batteries | 90% | 25% | 65 pp | Technically strong; market design slows adoption |
| Cheap desalinated water in water-stressed coastal regions | 95% | 25% | 70 pp | Strong regional solution |
| Large-scale wastewater recycling / potable reuse | 98% | 35% | 63 pp | Underappreciated strong solution |
| Precision-fermentation proteins at mass-market scale | 95% | 35% | 60 pp | Likely for ingredients/proteins |
| Cultivated meat cost-competitive with conventional meat | 60% | 10% | 50 pp | Possible but weak 2031 abundance bet |
| AI-driven precision agriculture materially lowers food inputs | 95% | 40% | 55 pp | Strong |
| Fully autonomous farms for major crops | 85% | 20% | 65 pp | Technically plausible; slow capital cycles |
| Vertical farms economically dominate conventional vegetables | 45% | 10% | 35 pp | Weak |
| AI-designed drugs materially shorten drug discovery | 98% | 50% | 48 pp | Very strong as R&D productivity technology |
| Home diagnostic devices + AI replace many clinic visits | 95% | 50% | 45 pp | Strong |
| Continuous preventive-health monitoring | 98% | 55% | 43 pp | Strong |
| Cheap whole-genome sequencing + AI interpretation | 95% | 40% | 55 pp | Technically strong |
| Personalized cancer treatment based on molecular profile | 95% | 20% | 75 pp | Very likely medically; unlikely democratically |
| Gene therapy cures for substantially more monogenic diseases | 90% | 8% | 82 pp | High technical probability, low access |
| Broad human genetic enhancement / longevity engineering | 25% | 2% | 23 pp | Very weak 2031 claim |
| Robotic eldercare / physical assistance at home | 80% | 20% | 60 pp | Plausible |
| Autonomous household food preparation | 70% | 20% | 50 pp | Moderate |
| Robotic lawn/pool/window/home maintenance | 95% | 35% | 60 pp | Strong |
| AI-driven government bureaucracy/tax/benefit administration | 95% | 50% | 45 pp | Technically highly feasible; politically variable |
| Near-zero-cost access to books, instruction and global knowledge | 99% | 85% | 14 pp | Essentially achieved technically |
Method and limitation
Both numbers are the author’s subjective probabilities for end-2031, not measured frequencies. Majority access means realistically usable or affordable by more than half of humanity. The values come from the supplied assessment. The plot gives them a common scale but does not confer empirical precision.
Source and status: Author-supplied “My probability assessment for end-2031.” Subjective judgments; original values retained.